$125 billion bailout for the Spanish banking sector

After Ireland, Portugal and Greece, the financial contagion has finally spread to Spain, as the Southern-European country asked on Sunday for a bailout worth as much as $125 billion dollars. The money will most likely come from the European Financial Stability Facility and the yet-to-be ratified European Stability Mechanism and are supposed to go towards the recapitalization of Spanish liquidity stripped banks. If the EU does not start taking bolder steps towards more integration Italy may go next.

France downgraded to AA+ and what it means for the rest of EU

In a move that only confirms what the rest of the world already knew, financial ratings agency Standard and Poor`s downgraded Friday 9 of the Eurozone countries: Cyprus, Italy, Spain and Portugal by two notches and Austria, France, Malta, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia by one notch. By far the biggest implications are for the downgrade of France from its triple A status to AA+ because it will consequently mean that its EFSF guarantees will not be as high rated as before and threaten to bring down the AAA status of this special investment vehicle.

FOREX update: All roads lead to Rome

So much erratic behavior on the FOREX markets today as the European contagion has definitely spread to Italy. Berlusconi has yet to resolve the political crisis which his country is facing as the austerity measures have not been voted by the dwindling majority. As a result, 10 year Italian bond prices have soared past 7%, a level at which Greece was already asking for European bailout and without quick measures Italy will follow the same path.

Precious metals leap forward as contagion spreads to Italy

  

Now that the waters have cleared for a bit in Greece, where Prime-minister Papandreou is going to form an unprecedented national unity government to push further budget cuts, the European bond vigilantes apparently have started to target the next weakest chain: Italy. The yields on 10 year Italian sovereign debt surged to 6.56% after reaching a record 6.68%. The Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will be under-fire tomorrow as the parliament will vote on a state financing bill. His majority within the parliament is weaker by the day and rumors that he would resign hit today's news, only to cause a prompt dismissal.Who is going to bail-out Italy in case it fails? EFSF which receives 140 billion euro in guarantees from Italy ?

Greece, wadup? Problems ?

It took a while for the financial markets to cool of from the Greek debt concerns (especially as the credibility of the European Rescue Fund is close to zero without IMF, Chinese, Russian and Brasilian support). I hope you enjoyed the brief silence, cause last night George Papandrou decided on the 31st of October (coincidentally on Halloween) to stirr things up a bit one more time and call for a referendum on the Greek debt deal and restructure the defence ministry.  As his power over the parliament is schrinking, the confidence vote may turn into a desaster if he doesn't manage to shore up enough support. Meenwhile stock markets around the world take a hit, with the S&P down to $1230 and the FTSE down to 5410.

Next week's FOREX trading outlook

This week has been a hectic trading week, with most of the FOREX currency pairs behaving like in a bee hive. The global turmoil was enhanced by the two major news: first is the agreed haircut of 50% of the Greek debt and the subsequent leverage of the EFSF and the second one is the systematic dump of US Treasuries by the foreign investors (the latest to join the party is the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund which dumped all US Treasuries and all US mortgage backed securities). What is in store for us next week?

FOREX market, why u so mean ?

Trading on the Foreign exchange market has been a bumpy ride, and the highest possibility is that it will get even bumpier. Most of the currency pairs surprised investors some way or the other: the EUR/CHF Swiss Bank intervention, the EUR/USD sharp drop then rebound on  EFSF news, the USD/JPY fat finger and the expected Japanese easing, the USD/HUF breakout of its channel and imminent retest of channel resistance, etc. It's been a looong month.

Greek gentlemen, we have a deal ! Or do we ?

Talks on the third wave of financial aid for Greece have come to an end (finally), during last night's second crisis summit held in Brussels. The conclusion? Greek bondholders will accept a 50% haircut on Greek debt, while the EU will provide guarantees and collateral through the EFSF and will work on the recapitalization of European Banks. The "hot potato" question still remains? Who is going to provide the money for all this? The US, the IMF, China ?

When the EU tsunami clears out the US debt crisis tidal wave will emerge

Nowadays the media are painting a bleak picture of the European Union debt crisis. The EFSF has been leveraged, the proposed "hair-cut" on Greek debt has been twisted and turned on all sides, without any visible conclusion. Contagion from the perypheral countries (PIGS) may spread out to the more stable countries: Germany and France (which is already on a credit downgrade outlook from Moody's). Meanwhile the US debt crisis tidal wave is closing by without anyone noticing.

Is the EFSF going to save Greece ?

The yields on peripheral countries are getting higher and higher, reflecting worries about the high levels of debt and fiscal deficit within these countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain). The 1 year Greek yield reached an apex of 188%. Just a year ago the yield on a 1 year Greek bonds was only 5%. The same goes for Portugal where the 1 year yields 18%, from 3.2% the 2010 figure. Ireland was partially saved by bond purchases and the yield stabilized to 8% after peaking at 22%. Will the EFSF cool-off the European debt crisis ?

While Greek yields skyrocket, the US continues its road to serfdom

The European Union may have done a very costly mistake by banning naked CDS shorts, because traders will now retort to outright shorting the underlying bonds. And short they will: Greek yields reached a staggering 188% for a 1yr note and they don't show any signs of cooling off. With Angela Merkel and  Nicolas Sarkozy still undecided about the European Rescue Fund, things can only get worse. Meanwhile America continues its slow road to serfdom.

Germany fails to auction 10y Bunds on EFSF concerns

Growing concerns regarding the leveraging of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) are weakening the core EU financial markets. Yesterday, Spain has been downgraded by the rating agency Moody's, two notches to AA1 level and France looks to be the next to lose its triple A rating.

All these concerns have started to spill out at the core of the European Union: Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Does EU really have a firm response for the upcoming debt crisis ?