Saturday, 15 October 2011

Are Gold and Silver still alpha investments ?

After the recent slump in precious metals, with gold falling from its all time high of $1920 to $1532, an almost 21% percent drop in less than a week there is a growing concern that the 11 years precious metals bull market is coming a close. Silver looks like it has been drop-kicked twice and there is significant chart damage in the upward trend. Investors are beginning to wonder if this is the sign of a market top.


The precious metal has went from last week from a largely overbought status to being oversold. The main culprit is the hike in margin requirement, announced by the CME, which coincided with negative news regarding the stability of the Euro. There possibility is high that gold is forming a daily bottom and consolidating before pushing to $2000 once again. It is forming a nice entry point, with the stop loss at  $1600, where the 200 day EMA is. The author has already used this opportunity as an entry point and will pyramid her way into the main position.


Silver has a slightly different story, showing more volatility and therefore bearing greater risks. I wouldn't advise to purchase it on margin, only if you have stomach for the pain. If it shows more chart strength, by breaking out of the 33.58 level, then you can go for the jugular. Before that, tread carefully.

Next week will be decisive for the upcoming trends, but I would be more on the buy side.

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